Why I will Ignore Opinion Polls in Kenya Elections 2013

The reason why I am not going to  listen to opinion polls on the elections 2013 is simple - because I took part in one a couple of weeks ago and if that is how they are conducted then opinion polls on elections are a sham.

I am being specific that opinion polls on elections are a sham because I have taken part in opinion polls on other issues such as most popular TV station and one on Men and Women relationship from the same research company and I think the research on these others was well conducted. The particular one I did on elections went a little bit like this...

Me: John, hello

Researcher: Hello, good morning my name is XXXX  from Ipsos Synovate can I take up a few seconds of your time to take part in a (I forget what she said it was)

(NB: Just so we are clear I think Ipsos Synovate is one of the best research companies we have in Kenya - if it had been any of the others I would have told her no... I don't have time and I would have hung up)

Me: Yes, sure a few seconds is okay.

Researcher: Thank you. So my first question is what is the major problem facing Nairobi at the moment.

Me: Well, I would say planning and management. See if there was good management of the city's resources we would not have drainage problems or water problems, traffic problems or most other problems. If there was proper policy on basic welfare then Nairobians would have less to worry about on education, health, shelter and food and people would use whatever earnings they had to get themselves out of the cycle of poverty and if these earnings were sufficient then levels of crime or the desperation that makes some of us criminals would be less.

Researcher: In the race for Nairobi Governor we have Ferdinand Waititu, Jimnah Mbaru, Dr. Evans Kidero, Phillip Khisia. Who among these do you think is able to solve Nairobi's problems

Me: There is no one else running apart from these ones?

Researcher: No

Me: Oh, okay ....based on my earlier answer I think Jimnah would make a better manager than the others, Khisia did a good job as town clerk and Kidero was a good manager for Mumias but I think Jimnah has done better in the corporate world in investments and business and he would make a good manager for the county.

Problem No 1: The researcher does not make it an open question as to who I think would solve Nairobi's problems she limits my choice to four individuals and also "lies" that there is no one else running for the gubernatorial race.
Of course I have since decided to vote for a 27 year old accountant Geoffrey Kobia who is running for governor. 
Why am I voting for Geoffrey - he's younger than me and I think Kenyans should realize that this generation of young people who have grown up with modern day problems such as unemployment, poverty and are exposed to the fast changing technology and the new global village the world has become are the key to solving them. Think of it a little bit like immunization (once you are exposed to the germs your body is equipped to handle the disease)

Geoffrey Kobia 27 year old aspiring to be Nairobi governor

Researcher: Who best do you think would solve Nairobi's ethnicity problems

Me: I think only Nairobians can solve this problem. You see this is an individual mindset I can't expect a leader to help me solve my own problems on how I think. I also think Kenyans should stop expecting leaders to solve all problems for them. The leader is supposed to implement structure and policy and create an environment where whatever occupation I am engaged in I can eke out a living for my dependents, I can get out of poverty and improve my living standards. I can't expect a leader to do these things for me...but I can expect them to make laws which allow me access to welfare if I need it if I can''t meet my basic needs. I expect them to have good fiscal policies that allow low income earners to keep more of their money to help themselves and also to access basic needs like food.

Researcher: Okay, so can I go back to my question

Me: Yes, I am sorry.

Researcher: No, its okay you were just giving your opinion. So who do you think among these leaders can solve Nairobi's ethnicity problems?

Me: None of them. I think Nairobians should change their own mindset.

Researcher: Which of these leaders do you think is able to have the most impact in managing Nairobi county's new budget and to increase trade and investment.

Me: Jimnah Mbaru

Problem: My answer was based on the limited selection she offered me. Of course you now know I believe Geoffrey Kobia while not as experienced as Jimnah can do as good a job

Researcher: Okay, so I am going to mention each of their names and you will tell me what is good and what is bad about them.

Me: Okay.

Researcher: Ferdinand Waititu

Me: I think he's okay. He is really a man of the people totally at the grassroots and understands people's problems. I have nothing against him.

Researcher: Okay, Jimnah Mbaru

Me: He is really done well in trade and in building up wealth you know with Trans Century and the like.

Researcher: Bad points

Me: Well I think he is a little bourgeoisie

Researcher: He is what?

Me: Bourgeoisie ...you know like a man of certain class not in touch with the people down here.

Researcher: Oh, okay. Dr. Kidero

Me: Oh he is fine I think he did a good job at Mumias but just like Jimnah he needs to be in touch with Nairobi's more poor population

Researcher: Phillip Khisia

Me: I think he did a great job you know with the beautification of Nairobi. I have nothing personal against him. But you know he will always have to carry the reputation of Nairobi City Council around with him.

Researcher: Okay, now in the race for Nairobi Senator we have Bishop Margaret Wanjiru and Gideon Mike Sonko who would you vote for?

Me: Is there no one else running?

Researcher: No

Problem: The researcher again lies that there is no one else running 
(Of course there is a bunch of other people including ex Mungiki Maina Njenga, Bishop Bonifes Adoyo etc)

Me: Well these two are pretty much alike they are very much at the grassroots ....you know like if the hawkers are striking you will find Bishop Margaret there in the mix...if it is matatu's on strike you will find Sonko working to ferry people to work. So there is pretty little to choose between them ...very much touch and go

Researcher: If you were at the ballot now who would you vote for

Me: (laugh) that's a difficult one. Margaret is a woman ...I am a great believer in empowering women so I might vote for her. Sonko is young ...I really would like a younger generation of leaders....mmmhhh let me see - okay for today I will go with Bishop Margaret ...but if you call me tomorrow or on the day of voting I will probably vote for Mike Sonko it is really touch and go between them.

Researcher: So Bishop Margaret?

Me: Yes, for today

Researcher: With the same two  Margaret Wanjiru and Mike Sonko what would you say are good and bad points for each. Mike Sonko

Me: I have no bad points against him. I really like the way he stays true to his character. He is really interesting

Researcher: Margaret

Me: Well like I said her and Sonko are really people persons. I like that about both of them. For Margaret I have only an issue with the fact that she didn't take time to improve her education credentials and was content with an honorary doctorate during her five years in parliament....unlike some of her counterparts who went back to school ....otherwise I think she is okay.

Researcher: Okay, for women representative we have Rachel Shebesh and Cynthia (I can't remember the name she said)

Me: Cynthia who?

Researcher: Cynthia (again I can't remember the name)

Me: Well, I know Rachel this other one I don't ...but wait there are other people running for this position.

Researcher: No, we have these two.

Me: No, I wasn't asking ....I am saying I know there other people running for this position. I know there is a Tabitha Wanjira on a Narc Kenya ticket and quite a few other people.

Researcher: Well these are the front runners the most popular ones.

Me: No but how do you decide who are the front runners. I thought you wanted to know from me who I am voting for ...I don't vote for front runners or popular candidates I vote for people I think we can sit down and have a conversation and a meeting of ideas on how to run a country.

Problem: The researcher lies that there are no other candidates ...only this time she is not able to get away with it because I happen to know the existence of other candidates.

Of course I have since decided I am voting for Esther Passaris ...I am really surprised in Synovate's Opinion she didn't rank as popular....she is the woman who made Nairobi come to light ...if you lived in Nairobi before 2002 you knew there were some hours of the night you had to walk in the middle of the road because you preferred being hit by car than mugged in the dark.

Seriously if Esther Passaris was running for Senator or Governor she is a woman I would vote for. But in Synovate's opinion - she didn't rank as popular. You know if they already had an opinion why ask for mine.

Esther Passaris Nairobi County Women Representative

 Researcher: Oh, okay so between these two who would you vote for

Me: None

Researcher: Oh, okay so do you have any good points and bad points for the two. Rachel

Me: I think she is okay. She is very outspoken and I like that about her.

Researcher: The other one you said you don't know anything about her.

Me: No, I don't know her.

Researcher: Okay so for presidential candidate and running mate. Who will you vote for

Me: Martha Karua and her running mate

Researcher: Augustine Lotodo?

Me: Yes

Researcher: Why

Me: Well for me I think Martha is someone who shares my ideas of what I want Kenya to be you know we can sit down and have a conversation and common ideas on welfare...I think she is honest and straightforward.

Martha Karua President of Kenya aspirant

Researcher: Okay, thank you for your time

Me: That took more than a few seconds...

Researcher: Yes, but you see I had to listen to your opinion I couldn't cut you short or limit you to my questions

Me: Yes, okay thank you.

Researcher: A few questions about yourself. Do you live in Nairobi county

Me: Yes. I live in .....

Researcher: Your telephone number

Me: 073...

Researcher: What is your ethnicity

Me: Well I don't ascribe to any. I am not fluent in any mother tongue .... I am mixed Kalenjin and Meru I prefer to think of myself as Kenyan or Nairobian.

Researcher: Your name

Me: John Paul

Researcher: Okay. Thank you for your time. Have a good day.

Me: You too.

So what do I think opinion poll companies should do is ...when they release their poll results they should also provide a sample questionnaire that was used.

If they don't I am going to treat every opinion poll I hear about with disregard because the questions are not open ...they lead the respondent to make certain choices and limit their scope to those choices.

Like I said I think Ipsos Synovate is the one of the best market research company in the market and how this particular opinion poll was conducted disappointed me.
 Other opinion polls I don't even pay attention to ...they are a sham from the outset for example the one by Consumer Insight on the Presidential Debate.

You know am not saying Mohammed Abduba Dida is going to beat Raila Odinga at the ballot box or pull greater numbers at a public rally but I dare say the leader for Alliance for Real Change makes a better debater than the latter.

Here is the full video with Linus Kaikai and Julie Gichuru

KENYA PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE 2013

So here is my opinion poll on the presidential debate. Martha Karua was the most practical, most genuine and the only candidate who displayed a proper understanding of issues facing Kenyans with ideas for welfare, a proper understanding of her party Narc Kenya ideology (Social Democrats) and a great insight on what are the mistakes done in the past and what is needed going forward in the future.

Note I am not saying ignore economic surveys or Kenya Demographic Surveys ...or other serious studies done by market research companies and Public Policy Research companies or our universities. All I am saying is if this is how opinion polls are conducted then the only "Opinion Poll" I will not doubt is the one where we take a piece of paper called a ballot and vote for our candidate in a poll called an election.

Something else we should take out of our mindset is this I told a couple of friends about my voting intentions and someone said "Kupigia Martha ni kutupa kura yako hawezi shinda" which translates to "If you vote for Martha it is a wasted effort she cannot win".
In my opinion if you vote for someone you believe you share ideals with, someone who has the same ideas on public expenditure as you do and the same aspirations for your country - then you have used your vote well. Even if you are the only one voting for this candidate.

However if you vote for a candidate so that you are part of a winning bandwagon then even before you go to the ballot you have lost "umetupa kura yako" "you have wasted your vote" because the electoral process is not about winners and losers like a football match - it is about your life ...how your tax money will be used, how much help you can get from your government to meet basic needs if they are out of your reach (welfare)... how your ideals and ideas are implemented as policy.


But that is my opinion ...what's yours?

10 Reasons Why I will Vote for Martha Karua

Martha Karua

1.She is a woman - she is Wangari

I think in Kenya any woman who is bold enough to engage in politics and take on the "boys" in this men sports called politics deserves total support.
That said Martha is a unique woman (otherwise you would have me vote for Kingwa Kamencu or any other woman). She is not just a pretty face - she is a "lioness". This mother of two, divorcee has seen it all that mothers and women in Kenya have to endure.
She is an awarded woman, a rights champion

• In 1991 Karua was recognized by Human Rights Watch as a human rights monitor.
• In December 1995 she was awarded by the Federation of Kenya Women Lawyers (FIDA) for advancing the cause of women.
• In 1999 the Kenya Section of the International Commission of Jurists awarded her the 1999 Kenya Jurist of the Year and in the same year same month, the law society of Kenya (LSK) awarded her the Legal Practitioners Due Diligence Award

Kenyans only realized the full extent of the late Professor Wangari Maathai's activity when she died.
We missed a chance at giving one Wangari the Presidency let us not make the same mistake twice. Here is Martha Wangari Karua.

2. She is a lone ranger

In Kenya politics we have grown from days of ONE party rule of KANU to days when parties merge and coalitions form. However these parties merging and breaking up have only ONE objective - to get into power for self interests. These parties and coalitions are our "modern day KANU" where to benefit you have to be in the bandwagon.
It is in this light that I am rooting for lone rangers such as Prof. Ole Kiyiapi and Winnie, Kingwa Kamenchu and most of all Martha Karua.
Most of all Martha because she has always been a lone ranger.

• She walked out on President Moi political rally - a brave thing to do for any man or woman
• She was the only member of the opposition who sat in the house (all others walked out) to present objections to the Constitution Review bill 2001.
• She was willing to represent political prisoners for free (she represented Mirugi Kariuki in Koigi Wamwere's treason trial)
• She was the only woman in the negotiations team after the Post Election Violence of 2007.
• She is the only Minister who has chosen to step down when as Minister for Justice she found she could not execute her duties freely without interference.
• She is the only Presidential candidate who has declared her wealth.

3. She is hardworking

While other members of parliament missed sessions or slept through them Martha Karua attended sessions and is one of the most active policy makers having spoken 2,953 times.
She is one of the easiest members of parliament to contact cell phone, facebook - Martha is accessible.

4. She believes in the Law

Martha is a true lawyer, a career advocate and a resident magistrate for part of her career.
Martha has always believed in using the law to improve lives - that is why she works so hard in parliament. She helped formulate laws in administration of wealth a major contribution to Kenya's Family Law.
As Minister of Water she was behind the Water Act 2002 which was a major milestone in managing Kenya's water resources.
Martha stepped down as Minister for Justice in April 2009 when she felt due process was not followed in appointment of Judges.
She is very outspoken on constitutionalism.
In a Kenya where we are looking for a leader to implement a fledgeling constitution our best bet would be Martha Karua.

5. She is Passionate and youthful at heart
Martha is my mother's age but I can't even begin to compare them. She is on facebook, she chats on SMS....she gives interviews on stations like Ghetto radio and she has taken part in a song done with Sudanese rapper Emmanuel Jal in his We Want Peace campaign.
Martha has looked the way she does for the last 20 years - parliament and hefty salaries haven't changed her appearance and for a 55 year old she still has got the IT.

6. She is honest - She tells it like it is
Martha Karua if she believes in something will say it.
She engaged William Ruto in public over a maize scandal asking him to resign. Both were then Ministers in the Kibaki government and the president could only watch.
She accused Raila Odinga of ethnic cleansing after the 2008 Post election violence. I am not saying he was responsible I am only pointing out that Martha believed it and she told him to his face.
I don't know about you but I prefer someone who tells me a nasty truth to my face than someone who goes around my back or is not honest with me.
When I vote Martha I know I will have a president who can tell me the truth good or bad to my face ...no false promises from her.

7. She loves Kenya and Kenyans
I think Martha Karua is a true patriot.
She is always trying to get people to be the best of themselves such as the recent incident in Korogocho where she tried to convince local youth that extorting money in the name of security wasn't a nice way to make money.
In her arguments for the implementation of the constitution she had a consistent argument with the interest of Kenyans being the underlying thread.

8. She is articulate, she has poise and style and she looks good
I think Martha will make a good President.
I think as Kenyans we will not blush if she has to engage with President Obama in conversation.
She can talk to him at a par level.
She does not have evidence of excesses and overindulgence in the good things of life that many of our MPs and presidential aspirants have that are so obvious pot bellies and the like

9. This is where the world is at
 Dilma Rousseff - Brazilian president
Laura Chinchilla - Costa Rica president
Michelle Bachelet - Chile president 2006 - 2010
Cristina Fernandez - Argentina president
Joyce Banda - Malawi president
Johnson Sirleaf - Liberia president
Park Geun-hye - South Korea president
Angela Merkel - German Chancellor
Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf - Switzerland Federal Council since 2008 (President 2012)
 It is time for Kenya to do ourselves a favour and get a woman president - our own version of Margaret Thatcher or the late Benazir Bhutto someone to lead us with a heart, someone with a strong spirit.

10. Honestly - she is the only candidate you can write 10 reasons about.
Okay to be honest sit down and try to come up with ten reasons as to why you want to vote for a particular candidate.
If you cannot then you are not using your head to vote. I have given you nine reasons to vote for Martha or rather the ten reasons why I will vote for her.
The tenth reason is that she does not appeal to excitement or slogans or crowd entertainment.
Martha is a serious woman - the kind we need to move the business of the nation forward. She is straight talking and will only give solid reasons as to why we need to vote for her in March. She is the only candidate who will give you food for thought from a campaign podium - everyone else seems to believe the less we think the better off we are.

Now as usual I enjoy music so here is a song that really exalts strength in womanhood

Dolly Parton's Eagle When she Flies

"Eagle When She Flies"

She's been there, God knows, she's been there
She has seen and done it all
She's a woman, she know how to
Dish it out or take it all
Her heart's as soft as feathers
Still she weathers stormy skies
And she's a sparrow when she's broken
But she's an eagle when she flies

A kaleidoscope of colors
You can toss her around and round
You can keep her in you vision
But you'll never keep her down
She's a lover, she's a mother
She's a friend and she's a wife
And she's a sparrow when she's broken
But she's an eagle when she flies

Gentle as the sweet magnolia
Strong as steel, her faith and pride
She's an everlasting shoulder
She's the leaning post of life
She hurts deep and when she weeps
She's just as fragile as a child
And she's a sparrow when she's broken
But she's an eagle when she flies

She's a sparrow when she's broken
But she's an eagle when she flies
Oh, bless her, Lord
She's an eagle when she flies